A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
